Chronic absenteeism declined for a third consecutive year in 2024, but the national rate remains far above its pre-pandemic baseline, according to the most comprehensive state-level analysis to date. The American Enterprise Institute, drawing on data from 44 reporting states, puts the 2024 rate at 23.5 percent, down from 28.5 percent at the 2022 peak but still well above the roughly 15 percent recorded in 2018 and 2019.
Two federal data pictures, same direction
The U.S. Department of Education, using its own compilation method, reports a higher absolute rate: about 31 percent in 2021-22 and 28 percent in 2022-23. The two sources differ in scope and methodology, but both show the same trajectory. Absenteeism spiked sharply during the pandemic and has since come down modestly, with the pace of decline slowing in the most recent year.
Nearly all students still in districts above 2019 levels
In 2024, half of U.S. students attended districts with chronic absenteeism rates between 15.8 percent and 30.3 percent, according to AEI. Even the lower bound of that range sits above the pre-pandemic national average. Six of 45 reporting states saw absenteeism rise in 2024, and four states posted record highs. New Mexico was the only state with a decline of more than 5 percentage points; two others had declines of exactly 5 points.
Pre-existing gaps widened, then narrowed only slightly
Before the pandemic, chronic absenteeism was already a documented and persistent problem concentrated among low-income students, students of color, and students with disabilities, AEI reports. The pandemic widened those gaps. Chronic absenteeism among Black students rose from 19 percent in 2020 to 39 percent in 2022, a 20-point increase. Hispanic students rose from 16 percent to 36 percent, white students from 11 percent to 24 percent, and Asian students from 7 percent to 15 percent.
By district achievement tercile, the lowest-achieving districts went from 19 percent absenteeism in 2018 to 35 percent in 2022, then fell 6 points by 2024, but still had the highest rates. The highest-achieving districts went from 10 percent to 19 percent and fell 3 points. FutureEd's analysis of 27 states found the same pattern by income, English learner status, and race, with those groups experiencing both the highest rates and the largest pandemic-era increases.
Remote instruction as a contributor
The Return to Learn Tracker, a project from Stanford and CEPA, documented wide cross-state variation in pandemic-era absenteeism and found that districts with longer periods of remote instruction in 2020-21 tended to have higher subsequent chronic absenteeism rates. That finding adds context to the uneven recovery: districts that spent more time remote generally entered the post-pandemic period with further to climb.
On pace to halve 2022 peaks by 2027?
Fifteen states have officially adopted a target of halving their 2022 absenteeism peaks by 2027. AEI estimates that about one-third of U.S. students are in districts on pace to meet that goal. RAND's 2024-25 survey of school leaders found chronic absenteeism remained a top concern, with many districts continuing to report elevated absence levels even into the current school year.
What the research says about reducing absenteeism
Peer-reviewed and federal research has consistently linked chronic absenteeism to lower academic achievement, higher dropout rates, and reduced likelihood of college enrollment, with effects compounding for already-disadvantaged students, AEI reports. That body of work establishes absenteeism as a major mediator of pandemic-era learning loss.
Research on interventions reviewed by the Department of Education's Institute of Education Sciences, as summarized by Attendance Works, finds that school-based mentoring, family outreach, and reducing barriers such as transportation can reduce chronic absence. The strongest evidence supports personalized outreach and positive engagement rather than punitive measures. But the evidence on what works at scale remains mixed, and effects are generally modest.
Attendance Works' own analysis of 2023-24 state data found that states and districts combining engagement, barrier-removal, and relationship-building strategies saw faster progress than those relying on punitive approaches alone. RAND's 2024-25 research found district leaders reporting persistent difficulty in reducing absenteeism, with many investing in attendance teams, family liaisons, and mental health supports. The evidence on whether those investments are driving measurable improvement remains preliminary and uneven across districts.