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Texas · Family Finance

Texas voucher data: most applicants already in private or home school, matching other states

Data from the state comptroller show about 75% of applicants to Texas' new $1 billion voucher program attended private school or were homeschooled last year, a pattern seen in other universal voucher states.

Share of voucher recipients never in public school, by state95%Arkansas87%Texas (projected)60%Nine-state average
Original Research by SchoolDecision.com
Arkansas had the highest share of voucher recipients who had never attended a public school at 95%. Texas's own fiscal analysis projected 87%, and across nine states the average was over 60%. [2]

Texas launched its Education Freedom Accounts (TEFA) program for the 2026-27 school year, funded at approximately $1 billion annually in taxpayer funds. The state comptroller's office reported 274,183 applications before the deadline and near 25,000 were found ineligible. More than 102,000 students are now participating. Among enrolled students who applied, 57% were in private schools and 43% were in public schools during the 2024-25 school year, according to AOL.

The comptroller's office also reported that roughly 75% of all applicants attended a private school or were homeschooled during the 2024-25 academic year, according to the Texas Tribune. That means taxpayer funds will mostly flow to families who had already chosen private education before the program existed.

The program sets per-student funding at $10,474 for students attending an approved private school, representing 85% of the statewide average state and local funding per student in average daily attendance. Home-schoolers can receive up to $2,000, and children with disabilities qualify for up to $30,000, per the Texas Education Freedom Accounts website.

Who applied

Data from the comptroller's office show that 45% of applicants are white, 23% Hispanic, and 12% Black. Low-income families at or below 200% of the federal poverty level make up 37% of applicants, and children with disabilities make up 16%, according to the Texas Tribune.

The program uses a four-tier priority system. Tier 1 covers children with disabilities at or below 500% FPL (12% of applicants). Tier 2 covers families at or below 200% FPL (32% of applicants). Tier 3 covers families between 200% and 500% FPL (29% of applicants). Tier 4 covers families at or above 500% FPL (22% of applicants), according to the Texas Tribune.

Because demand exceeded available funding, a lottery was conducted to decide placement among Tier 2 applicants and below, KTRE reported.

75 percentShare of Texas voucher applicants who were already in private school or homeschooling during the 2024-25 school year. [1]

Pattern seen in other states

Texas's data mirrors a pattern documented in other states with universal or near-universal voucher programs. In a review of nine states with voucher programs (Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin), more than 60% of voucher recipients had never attended a public school, according to Houston Public Media. Arkansas had the highest share at 95%.

North Carolina provides a similar example. After that state eliminated income caps and prior public school enrollment requirements for its voucher program, nearly 90% of universal voucher recipients were students already enrolled in private school, according to a state Department of Public Instruction report cited by Houston Public Media. The report also found that families with a child in private school earned nearly double the typical household income.

Arizona's Empowerment Scholarship Accounts program, studied in an ERIC-published analysis, showed patterns similar to other states where existing private school families are the primary beneficiaries, according to that analysis.

What research says

A September report from the National Center for Research on Education Access and Choice (REACH) found that voucher-like programs raised private school enrollment by 3-4% nationally, according to Houston Public Media. That finding indicates the biggest beneficiaries are families whose children already attend private school rather than students transferring from public schools.

Texas's own fiscal analysis projected that 87% of TEFA applicants would be students already attending private schools, according to Houston Public Media citing the state fiscal analysis. That projection was made before the application data was released. The comptroller's data showing roughly 75% of applicants were existing private school or homeschool students is consistent with that forecast.

Update - August 30, 2026

On August 1, 2026, the Texas Comptroller's office released its first annual TEFA report, as required by state law. As of July 29, 85,344 of the more than 122,000 invited families had confirmed participation, while over 20,700 families declined their awards. Participation subsequently rose to roughly 101,600 by mid-August, with more than 100,000 students remaining on the waitlist [16].

New state data released August 18 showed that 70% of the 118,441 students awarded funds as of August 10 previously attended private school or were homeschooled, while 30% came from public schools — a share slightly lower than the 75% reported among all applicants but still confirming that the majority of funded recipients were already in private or home education [17]. Notably, about two-thirds of the families who declined or returned their awards had children previously enrolled in public schools, often because they could not secure a private school seat, tuition remained too high even with the subsidy, or specialized disability services were unavailable nearby [18].

Share already in private or homeschool75%All applicants (pre-award)70%Funded awardees (Aug. 10)
Original Research by SchoolDecision.com
Share of Texas TEFA recipients previously in private school or homeschooling, comparing all applicants to funded awardees [17]

Analysis

By the School Decision Newsroom, written after the reporting above was filed.

Arizona ran this exact playbook and costs blew past projections within three months.

Arizona launched universal ESA vouchers in 2022, budgeting $624 million for 68,380 students. Enrollment exceeded that cap within three months of the fiscal year. By FY2025 the program cost $872 million. The Grand Canyon Institute found that three-quarters of universal ESA students had never attended a public school, the same share Texas is now reporting. The net cost to Arizona's general fund was $360 million in FY2025 alone, because most participants were already in private school and generated no offsetting public school savings. Texas is on the same trajectory.

The $1 billion covers 102,000 students. Another 144,000 eligible kids are on the waitlist.

The $1 billion is a two-year cap through August 2027, not a cost forecast. It covers about 102,000 of the 248,000 eligible applicants, leaving 144,000 on what the comptroller calls the largest school choice waitlist in the nation. The nonpartisan Legislative Budget Board projects the program growing to $3.3 billion by 2028 and $4.8 billion by 2030. Because roughly three-quarters of participants were already in private school, most spending does not offset public school costs. The LBB estimates the net hit to general revenue at $2.98 billion in FY2028, rising to $3.75 billion by FY2030.

The 2027 legislative session is where the real funding decision lands.

The $1 billion cap expires with the current budget cycle in August 2027. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who made vouchers a Senate priority, has already announced his intent to expand the program when lawmakers return to the Capitol that year. The 144,000-student waitlist is the political leverage. Families in Tier 3 and Tier 4, those above 200 percent of the federal poverty level, have been told not to expect acceptance for 2026-27. Nearly 13,000 waitlisted students are from low-income families. What lawmakers appropriate in 2027 determines whether those families get in.

Sources

  1. Texas Tribune. White families make up bulk of Texas voucher applicants View
  2. Houston Public Media. Families can soon apply for Texas' $1 billion school voucher program. Here's how it works View
  3. Texas Education Freedom Accounts. Texas Education Freedom Accounts: Home View
  4. AOL. More than 102,000 students participating in new school choice program View
  5. KTRE. Over 2,500 East Texas public school students are receiving school vouchers View
  6. Houston Public Media (citing North Carolina DPI). Families can soon apply for Texas' $1 billion school voucher program. Here's how it works View
  7. National Center for Research on Education Access and Choice (REACH). Cited in Houston Public Media reporting on Texas school voucher program View
  8. ERIC (National Bureau of Economic Research / Thomas B. Fordham Institute). Paying for Private Education: Who Benefits in Arizona View
  9. Houston Public Media (citing state fiscal analysis). Families can soon apply for Texas' $1 billion school voucher program. Here's how it works View
  10. Community Impact. More than 100K students have been awarded Texas Education Freedom Accounts. Here are the next steps. View
  11. Arizona Mirror. AZ school voucher enrollment exceeds budget estimate View
  12. Grand Canyon Institute. Cost of the Universal ESA Program (February 2026) View
  13. ESA Tracker by State. Texas ESA Program: Complete Texas Education Freedom Accounts Analysis and Data View
  14. Courier Texas. Texas private school voucher applications are closed. Now what? View
  15. Texas Tribune. Private school vouchers are now law in Texas. Here's how they will work. View
  16. Texas Tribune. More than 100K students using ESAs during Texas' first year View
  17. Click2Houston (KPRC). 70% of Texas voucher awardees previously attended private school or were homeschooled, state data shows View
  18. Houston Chronicle. 25K Texas school voucher recipients opted out. Here's why. View
Texas voucher data: most applicants already in private or home school, matching other states | School Decision