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National · Policy & Funding

DHS public charge rule could shrink SNAP, Medicaid rolls and threaten school meal funding

A new DHS rule lets immigration officers consider SNAP and Medicaid use when evaluating applications, raising warnings from education groups that direct certification and CEP eligibility will decline.

The Department of Homeland Security published a final rule on July 20, 2026, that rescinds the 2022 public charge regulations and gives immigration officers broad discretion to consider whether a noncitizen has received any means-tested public benefit, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Medicaid, when evaluating applications for permanent residency or visa extensions. The rule, titled "Public Charge Ground of Inadmissibility," takes effect September 18, 2026. DHS estimates that the rule will lead to approximately $13.05 billion in annual reductions in federal and state transfer payments as families disenroll or forgo benefits out of fear of immigration consequences, according to the final rule published in the Federal Register.

Chilling effect on benefit enrollment and school meals

Education organizations have warned that the rule will create a chilling effect that reduces enrollment in SNAP and Medicaid among families with noncitizen members, even when the children themselves are U.S. citizens. AASA, The School Superintendents Association, said in a blog post covered by K-12 Dive that the rule could shrink the pool of students directly certified for free school meals and jeopardize schools’ eligibility for the Community Eligibility Provision (CEP), which allows schools to offer free breakfast and lunch to all students. A coalition of education organizations led by AASA wrote to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem in December 2025 urging withdrawal of the proposed rule, noting that all 50 states use SNAP participation to directly certify students for free meals and 39 states also use Medicaid enrollment for the same purpose.

During the 2025–2026 school year, a record 55,362 schools operated CEP, serving 27.6 million children, according to the Food Research & Action Center (FRAC). That represented an increase of 1,128 schools, or 2.1 percent, from the prior year—the slowest growth rate in the program’s history. FRAC also reported that 74.9 percent of eligible schools adopted CEP.

$13.05 billionEstimated annual reduction in federal and state transfer payments due to disenrollment or forgone enrollment in public benefits, as projected by DHS in the final rule. [1]

Precedent from the 2019 rule and H.R. 1 cuts

The 2026 rule rescinds the Biden-era 2022 Final Rule, which had limited the public charge definition to public cash assistance for income maintenance and long-term institutionalization. The 2022 rule explicitly excluded SNAP, Medicaid, CHIP, WIC, and housing benefits from consideration. The 2019 public charge rule under the first Trump administration, though narrower in some respects, produced documented chilling effects. An AASA-cited survey series by the Urban Institute found that one in five adults in immigrant families with children reported avoiding certain public programs out of fear of immigration consequences in 2019; among low-income families with children, the rate was 31.5 percent. The chilling effects extended to programs not even specified in the 2019 rule, including WIC and free or reduced-price school meals.

Further, a study cited by the education coalition found that the announcement of the 2019 proposed rule alone, before it was adopted, was associated with a nationwide decrease of approximately 260,000 in child Medicaid enrollment, 149,000 in child SNAP enrollment, and 21,000 in child WIC enrollment. The coalition’s letter noted that chilling effects began before the 2019 rule was finalized and persisted even after it was withdrawn.

The new public charge rule arrives on top of the 2025 budget reconciliation law (H.R. 1), which enacted changes to SNAP and Medicaid that are already reducing participation. FRAC estimated that over 5 million people have lost SNAP benefits since the law took effect in July 2025. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) reported that close to half of National School Lunch Program schools now operate CEP, and that a reduction in children’s SNAP and Medicaid enrollment could decrease the number of schools eligible for CEP and reduce CEP income, potentially causing schools to opt out. CRS noted that precise impact is difficult to quantify due to state-level variation.

Research on chilling effects and enrollment declines

The research cited by the education coalition establishes that chilling effects from public charge policies can be widespread and affect programs beyond those explicitly named. The Urban Institute study found that in 2019, one in five adults in immigrant families with children reported avoidance of public benefits, with a rate of 31.5 percent among low-income families. The study by Barofsky, Rodriguez, and Barrows found that the mere announcement of the 2019 proposed rule was associated with measurable enrollment declines for children in Medicaid, SNAP, and WIC, even before any rule took effect.

An Urban Institute analysis of the H.R. 1 SNAP changes estimated that 7.5 million students could lose individual access to free meals through the loss of universal free school meal policies, at least 181,000 students might need to revert to school meal applications, and at least 16.0 million students were at risk of losing access to universal free meal programs in a sample of 37 states and D.C. The analysis distinguished between individual meal access and universal program participation.

Timing of impact on schools

School districts may not feel the full combined effect of the public charge rule and H.R. 1 changes until the 2026–2027 school year. AASA noted in district guidance that once a student is directly certified, that status lasts for the entire school year. The H.R. 1 SNAP and Medicaid eligibility changes went into effect in November 2025, but schools have not yet experienced the full impact because of this carryover protection, AASA said. With the public charge rule taking effect on September 18, 2026, and the new school year beginning shortly after, the implications for direct certification and CEP eligibility are expected to materialize in SY 2026–27. DHS acknowledged in the final rule that the recent changes to Medicaid and SNAP under H.R. 1 are expected to affect enrollment rates independently, adding complexity to any quantification of the public charge rule’s impact alone.

The Medicaid in Schools Coalition, representing over 65 organizations, warned in a letter to DHS that reductions in Medicaid enrollment will directly affect school funding and resources. The coalition noted that one in four children in the United States—19 million—have at least one immigrant parent, and that the majority of these children are U.S. citizens. Lower Medicaid enrollment would mean decreased school-based Medicaid reimbursements, a loss that the coalition said would be especially severe for rural schools where a higher share of children are covered by Medicaid.

Analysis

By the School Decision Newsroom, written after the reporting above was filed.

The 2019 public charge rule was narrower. It still caused 260,000 children to lose Medicaid.

The 2018 announcement of the Trump-era public charge proposal, before the rule was finalized, was associated with 260,000 children dropping from Medicaid and 149,000 from SNAP, according to a peer-reviewed Health Affairs study. Fear spread to WIC and school meals, programs the 2019 rule never named. The 2026 rule goes further: DHS removed the 2019 rule's strict definitions and specific benefit exclusions, giving officers broader discretion to consider any means-tested public benefit including SNAP and Medicaid. If a narrower rule produced that much collateral damage, a broader one is unlikely to produce less.

The 25 percent threshold that opened CEP to thousands of schools is the same one that now puts them at risk.

A school can offer free meals to all students under CEP only if at least 25 percent of its enrollment is directly certified through SNAP, Medicaid, foster care, or other pathways. USDA lowered this cutoff from 40 percent to 25 percent in October 2023, which helped drive CEP to a record 55,362 schools. Schools that just cleared the new bar are the most exposed. A campus that qualified at 27 or 28 percent can fall below the cutoff if even a modest share of families leave SNAP or Medicaid, forcing a return to individual meal applications.

The April 1, 2027 data match is the first real test of the combined damage.

Schools calculate CEP eligibility using direct certification data as of April 1 each year and must elect CEP by June 30 for the following school year. The public charge rule takes effect September 18, 2026, so the April 1, 2027 snapshot will be the first to capture families who disenrolled from SNAP or Medicaid after the rule took hold. H.R. 1's benefit changes, effective since November 2025, will also be fully visible by then because carryover protections expire when the new school year starts. Ask your district whether its identified student percentage dropped between April 2026 and April 2027.

Sources

  1. Federal Register / DHS. Public Charge Ground of Inadmissibility View
  2. K-12 Dive. DHS final rule could hinder students' access to food, healthcare, AASA warns View
  3. AASA / Education Organizations Coalition. Education Organizations Comments on Public Charge Rule (letter to Secretary Noem) View
  4. Food Research & Action Center (FRAC). Community Eligibility: The Key to Hunger-Free Schools School Year 2025-2026 View
  5. Food Research & Action Center (FRAC). Report Reveals More Schools Adopting Community Eligibility to Address Child Hunger, SNAP Cuts Threaten Gains View
  6. AASA, The School Superintendents Association. How Changes to H.R. 1 Affect Direct Certification and School Districts View
  7. Congressional Research Service (via EveryCRSReport). Implications for USDA's Child Nutrition Efforts View
  8. Urban Institute. Changes to SNAP and Medicaid Would Have Implications for Student Access to School Meals View
  9. Medicaid in Schools Coalition. Medicaid in Schools Coalition Letter on Public Charge Rule (letter to Secretary Noem) View
  10. Health Affairs. Spreading Fear: The Announcement Of The Public Charge Rule Reduced Enrollment In Child Safety-Net Programs View
  11. USDA Food and Nutrition Service. Community Eligibility Provision: Election Deadline and Annual Notification and Publication Requirements (SP04-2026) View
  12. USDA Food and Nutrition Service / Federal Register. Child Nutrition Programs: Community Eligibility Provision-Increasing Options for Schools (Final Rule lowering ISP threshold from 40% to 25%) View
DHS public charge rule could shrink SNAP, Medicaid rolls and threaten school meal funding | School Decision